PyTorch · LSTM · Transformer · Mamba (state-space) · NextGen · Google Cloud · xarray
HYDRA
Watershed forecasting research: reforecast generation and deep-learning post-processing for NOAA NextGen streamflow forecasts
Problem
Experiencing Hurricane Helene in Boone is what motivated HYDRA. Short-lead streamflow forecasts from NOAA’s NextGen framework carry errors that a learned post-processor may be able to reduce, and HYDRA asks whether a model trained on reforecasts generated with the same framework can improve forecasts at 1–18 hour lead times without leaking future information.
Why it matters
The work has two parts: NextGen reforecast generation software with Google Cloud workflows that prepare the data, and a post-processing model evaluated by site and lead time. Results are pending; a results manuscript for Water Resources Research is in preparation, and a software paper for Environmental Modelling & Software is planned.
Approach
- Built NextGen reforecast generation software and Google Cloud workflows to acquire, validate, and align weather, streamflow, and forecast data with traceable provenance.
- Designing forecast post-processing for 1–18 hour lead times, comparing LSTM, Transformer, and Mamba-style models on identical inputs and splits.
- Evaluating with leakage-aware temporal splits and hydrologic metrics (RMSE, NSE, KGE), reporting performance by site and lead time.
- Preserving initialization, lead, valid-time, version, and source metadata so every training example traces back to the forecast that produced it.
- Preparing a results manuscript for Water Resources Research; a software paper for Environmental Modelling & Software is planned.
Results
- Reforecast generation software and Google Cloud data workflows are in place; the NextGen_Hydra repository is public.
- Model comparison and lead-time evaluation are in progress; results will be posted when the analysis is complete.
- A results manuscript is in preparation, and a software paper is planned.
What I learned
- Post-processing depends as much on how reforecasts are generated and aligned as on model architecture.
- Reproducible data and configuration lineage make changing scientific results auditable.
- Research claims should evolve with the evidence rather than outrun the analysis.